In this post, we preview the Eurovision Semi Final odds for the first Eurovision semi-final on Tuesday Night along with the chances of each of the betting favourites.
Eurovision Semi-Final (1) Info
Date: 12 May 2026
Time: 9 pm CEST
Venue: Wiener Stadthalle, Vienna, Austria
Hosts: Victoria Swarovski, Michael Ostrowski, and Emily Busvine (Green Room)
Channel: RTÉ 2 and BBC Two
There will be 15 countries participating in Semi-Final 1 (determined by draw). The best 10 countries from Semi-Final 1 will qualify for the Grand Final.
Voting: Televoting from participating countries + Online voting ("Rest of the world") and national juries, each awarding 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 12 points.
The pre-qualified countries, Germany and Italy, will perform (but not compete) and vote in Semi-Final 1. France, Austria and the United Kingdom will also perform on the night, as the Big 4 and host nation are automatically qualified for the Saturday Night Grand Final. Note: Ireland have not entered Eurovision 2026, having withdrawn in protest at Israel's inclusion.
Running Order – Semi-Final 1
1. Moldova – Viva, Moldova! by Satoshi
2. Sweden – My System by FELICIA
3. Croatia – Andromeda by LELEK
4. Greece – Ferto by Akylas
5. Portugal – Rosa by Bandidos do Cante
6. Georgia – On Replay by Bzikebi
[Italy perform here – non-competing guest: Sal Da Vinci – Per Sempre Si]
7. Finland – Liekinheitin by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen
8. Montenegro – Nova Zora by Tamara Živković
9. Estonia – Too Epic To Be True by Vanilla Ninja
10. Israel – Michelle by Noam Bettan
[Germany perform here – non-competing guest: Sarah Engels – Fire]
11. Belgium – Dancing on the Ice by Essyla
12. Lithuania – Sólo Quiero Más by Lion Ceccah
13. San Marino – Superstar by SENHIT
14. Poland – Pray by ALICJA
15. Serbia – Kraj Mene by LAVINA
Semi-Final (1) Favourites
Eurovision Betting Semi-Final (1) Favourites
Finland
Finland – Favourites to Win Semi-Final 1
Semi-Final 1 Win Odds: 4/6 Overall Contest Win Odds: 11/8
The top favourite for Semi-Final 1 is Finland, represented by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen with the song "Liekinheitin". They are the outright favourites to win the entire contest with odds of 11/8, suggesting a 42.1% chance of winning.
Finland ticks several Eurovision trend boxes: well-performed duets have a strong record over the years, as do songs featuring violins, and Linda has been confirmed to play live. Finland have also qualified comfortably at the semi-final stage for five years in a row.
Finland has participated in the Eurovision Song Contest 58 times since their debut in 1961, and their only victory came with Lordi and "Hard Rock Hallelujah" in 2006.
Greece
Greece – Second Favourites
Semi-Final 1 Win Odds: 5/2 Overall Contest Win Odds: ~5/2
Second favourite for Semi-Final 1 is Greece, represented by Akylas with the song "Ferto". Strong vocal deliveries and staging in both first and second rehearsals have boosted Greece's campaign.
Interestingly Greece are priced at 5/2 to win both the semi-final and the outright final on Saturday Night.
Israel
Israel – Third Favourites
Semi-Final 1 Win Odds: 9/2 Overall Contest Win Odds: 14/1
Fourth favourite for Semi-Final 1 is Israel, represented by Noam Bettan with the song "Michelle". Noam was chosen to represent Israel following his selection through HaKokhav HaBa.
Israel are expected to qualify comfortably for the Grand Final.
Moldova
Moldova – Fourth Favourites
Semi-Final 1 Win Odds: 12/1 Overall Contest Win Odds: 33/1
Third favourite for Semi-Final 1 is Moldova, represented by Satoshi with the song "Viva, Moldova!". Moldova has participated in the Eurovision Song Contest 19 times since its debut in 2005, qualifying for the Grand Final on 13 of those occasions.
Their best result remains a third-place finish in 2017 with SunStroke Project and "Hey Mamma". Moldova are known for energetic, entertaining staging and strong televote performances – and "Viva, Moldova!" fits that mould perfectly.
Each Way Bet
Croatia – Each-Way Interest @ 33/1
Semi-Final 1 Win Odds: 33/1 Overall Contest Win Odds: 80/1
Croatia are represented by LELEK with the Slavic folk number "Andromeda" – very different to anything else in the semi-final.
Their second-place finish in 2024 was their first top-10 finish since 2001, and a place in the top three of the semi-final isn't beyond the realms of possibility, despite the long odds.
To Qualify
Georgia – Qualification Outsider
To Qualify Odds: 7/2
Georgia are represented by Bzikebi with "On Replay". They perform after Portugal, which could help them stand out.
Georgia have slipped back in the betting in recent days, but with enough weaker entries in the semi-final, they remain in genuine contention for one of the final qualification spots.
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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Bill is as passionate about Irish football as they come, with an agonising longing to see his country grace a World Cup stage. A League of Ireland devotee and lifelong Man United fan, he knows better than most what sporting heartbreak feels like, and brings that perspective to the BOYLE Sports Blog. With roots in greyhound racing and a curiosity spanning politics, snooker, WWE and beyond, there is rarely a sporting conversation he cannot add to.
