England vs Ireland Prediction & Tips: Is This 11/5 Bet Just Too Obvious?

Dylan McHugh 20 February 2026 at 05:33pm
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Ireland travel to Twickenham in Round 3 of the 2026 Six Nations under genuine pressure, but history suggests they are at their most dangerous when written off.

With England smarting from defeat in Edinburgh and the Irish seeking a statement performance after an inconsistent start, both teams head into this clash with big question marks hanging over them.

England vs Ireland Prediction – Six Nations 2026

Two old enemies are set to duel it out once again, so get yourself ready for the big game with everything you need to know below. You can also check out a video preview of the game from our panel of rugby experts; Simon Zebo, Andy Goode, and Jim Hamilton.

England vs Ireland Match Details

Venue : Twickenham , London , England

Referee : Andrea Piardi (Italy)

How to Watch

How to Watch England vs Ireland

The Round 3 showdown kicks off at 14:10 on Saturday, 21 February 2026.

UK coverage is live on ITV1 from 1pm , presented by Mark Pougatch , with analysis from Jonny Wilkinson , Brian O'Driscoll and Rory Best , pitchside updates from Topsy Ojo, and commentary by Nick Mullins , David Flatman and Gordon D'Arcy.

In Ireland, coverage begins at 1pm on RTÉ2 , hosted by Jacqui Hurley who is joined by an expert panel of former Ireland stars in Jamie Heaslip , Simon Zebo and Stephen Ferris.

Betting Odds

England vs Ireland Betting Odds – Six Nations 2026

Result

Odds

Chance

England

1/4

80.0%

Ireland

7/2

22.2%

Draw

25/1

3.8%

England are clear favourites at 1/4, with Ireland priced at 7/2, while the draw sits at 25/1, reflecting strong home confidence in the market.

Total Points Betting

Over 48.5 @ 10/11

Under 48.5 @ 4/5

Will There Be Over or Under 48.5 Points in England vs Ireland? Six Nations 2026

Handicap Betting

England -11 @ Evens

Ireland +11 @ Evens

Handicap Draw (-11) @ 18/1

Will Ireland Cover the +11 Handicap vs England? – Six Nations 2026

Tryscorer Odds

Try Scorer Betting

Player

First Try

Anytime

Henry Arundell

7/1

5/6

Tommy Freeman

8/1

Evens

Dan Sheehan

12/1

13/8

Henry Pollock

12/1

13/8

James Lowe

12/1

13/8

Luke Cowan-Dickie

12/1

13/8

Our traders have Henry Arundell at 7/1 as the favourite in the first tryscorer market, while Tommy Freeman is close behind at 8/1, with both English men also leading the anytime tryscorer market.

From an Irish perspective, hooker Dan Sheehan is 12/1 first try and 13/8 anytime, reflecting his continued reputation as a set-piece strike weapon.

Who Will Score the First Try? England vs Ireland 6 Nations 2026

Team News

Team News

England – Starting XV

15 Freddie Steward, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Henry Arundell, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3 Joe Heyes, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 Ollie Chessum, 6 Tom Curry, 7 Ben Earl, 8 Henry Pollock

England – Replacements

16 Jamie George, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Guy Pepper, 21 Sam Underhill, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Marcus Smith

Lock Maro Itoje is set to earn his 100th cap, while Henry Pollock makes his first international start at Number 8.

Ireland – Starting XV

15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Robert Baloucoune, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 1 Jeremy Loughman, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 4 Joe McCarthy, 5 James Ryan, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 7 Josh van der Flier, 8 Caelan Doris

Ireland – Replacements

16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Tom O'Toole, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Nick Timoney, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Ciarán Frawley, 23 Tommy O'Brien

Jack Crowley reclaims the No.10 jersey, while established Lions Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne, and Josh van der Flier return to the starting side.

Form Guides

Team Form Guides

England Form Guide

England were beaten 31-20 by Scotland at Murrayfield , a result that dented their title aspirations. Having been viewed as serious contenders, they now need a strong response to remain in the championship conversation.

In round 1, they made light work of a lowly Wales, 48-7 being the final score in that one.

This English side were viewed as serious tournament contenders coming into this year’s competition and reaffirmed that belief with the nature of their win against the Welsh. More Murrayfield misery, however, has now left their contenders tag in tatters and raises serious questions about how good this team really is.

Ireland Form Guide

Ireland were blown away 36-14 by France in Paris in Round 1. That was a game that was all but over at half-time, as the French led 22-0 in front of a raucous home crowd.

Andy Farrell’s men then went on to grind out a 20-13 win over Italy in Dublin in round 2. Despite the win, the performance against the Azzurri raised more questions about cohesion and tempo, suggesting a team still finding its identity in transition.

Head-to-Head

England vs Ireland Head-to-Head

England and Ireland share one of the oldest and most storied rivalries in international rugby, having met 143 times since their first clash in 1875.

Historical Results:

England – 81

Ireland – 54

Draws – 8

While historically this fixture has been dominated by England, that has changed substantially since the professional era. From 35 matches, England have 19 wins compared to Ireland’s 16 since rugby union turned professional.

Recent Meetings

Date

Result

Venue

1 February 2025

Ireland 27 – 22 England

Dublin, Ireland

9 March 2024

England 23 – 22 Ireland

London, England

19 August 2023

Ireland 29 – 10 England

Dublin, Ireland

18 March 2023

Ireland 29 – 16 England

Dublin, Ireland

12 March 2022

Ireland 32 – 15 England

London, England

Their most recent clash came in the 2025 Six Nations, where Ireland claimed a 27–22 victory at the Aviva Stadium. The last time these teams met at Twickenham, it was a last-gasp drop goal that saw England prevail on a scoreline of 23-22.

England vs Ireland Predictions

England vs Ireland Betting Tips – Six Nations 2026

Ireland +11 @ Evens

Ireland arrive at Twickenham with significant reinforcements, as British & Irish Lions stars Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne and Josh van der Flier return to the starting pack. All three bring world‑class pedigree in collisions, breakdown pressure and set‑piece certainty, and their presence goes a long way toward stabilising an Irish side that had been stretched earlier in the championship due to injuries in key areas.

Even so, Ireland remain slightly underpowered behind them, with notable absentees including Hugo Keenan, Mack Hansen, Robbie Henshaw and Bundee Aki, yet the core identity of their pack remains intact. Importantly, Ireland’s away record is exceptional: they have won eight of their last ten away Six Nations matches , with only two defeats in that span, one of which came at Twickenham.

England, meanwhile, are formidable at home. They have won nine straight matches at the Allianz Stadium (Twickenham), their best run since 2015–18, and remain unbeaten there since November 2024. However, the margins in this rivalry have tightened considerably over the last decade, and England’s Calcutta Cup loss earlier in the campaign suggests they remain vulnerable under sustained pressure.

Given Ireland’s strengthened pack, elite turnover rate (joint‑highest in the tournament at 13, including seven jackals) and proven resilience in keeping games close, +11 looks very enticing. Even away from home and missing several backline starters, Ireland have both the physicality and the structure to stay competitive well into the final quarter.

1/1
● LIVE ODDS Ireland Match Handicap

Dan Sheehan Anytime Try Scorer @ 13/8

Dan Sheehan continues to be one of the most dangerous forwards in world rugby inside the opposition 22, and Ireland’s attack remains heavily built around his finishing power. Starting again at hooker for the 2026 meeting, Sheehan retains his central role at the heart of Ireland’s maul and close‑range strike patterns.

Ireland’s scoring trends make this market especially appealing. Their injury‑hit backline places even greater emphasis on forward‑led phases, and Jack Crowley’s control at 10 alongside Jamison Gibson‑Park’s tempo ensures a high volume of structured carries from 5–10 metres out. Sheehan is the primary beneficiary of that system.F

On the England side, there are defensive red flags. England conceded 5 tries against Scotland in the Calcutta Cup, with defensive cohesion and spacing repeatedly exposed under pressure. Even if England tighten up, Ireland’s maul remains one of the championship’s most efficient scoring weapons — and Sheehan is its sharpest point.

At 13/8 , the price reflects both role and opportunity. It’s one of the strongest anytime try angles on the board.

13/8
● LIVE ODDS Dan Sheehan Anytime Tryscorer

England 1-7 Winning Margin @ 11/5

For punters expecting a tight, high‑quality Test match, the 1–7 England winning margin aligns neatly with the historical data and current performance indicators.

England’s nine‑match home winning streak at the Allianz Stadium establishes the baseline expectation of a home win, particularly given the abrasive form of their pack and improved carrying numbers from the likes of Ben Earl, who leads the tournament with 39 carries through two rounds (12 more than any other player). England’s scrum has also been flawless, losing 0 scrums on their own feed in the 2026 championship so far.

Ireland, however, rarely lose heavily. Their away form is excellent, their defence remains turnover‑rich, and with Lions-calibre reinforcements (Furlong, Beirne, van der Flier) restoring balance to their pack, they are far more robust than earlier in the campaign. They also beat England 27–22 last season, proving they can dictate large stretches of the contest against this opposition.

At 11/5, this is a well‑judged angle for bettors leaning towards an England victory without expecting daylight between the sides.

These factors point strongly toward a close, attritional battle shaped by territory, set‑piece pressure and physical exchanges rather than runaway scoring. A projected result in the region of England 27–23 Ireland fits comfortably within the 1–7 band.

Match Prediction

England vs Ireland Prediction – 2026 Six Nations

Prediction: England 27-23 Ireland

Expect a high-intensity, physical contest with both sides creating scoring opportunities, but England’s home advantage and territorial control at Twickenham could prove decisive.

Ireland should stay within touching distance throughout, particularly through their set-piece strength, but may just fall short in the closing stages.

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