In this post, we are taking a look at England's starting XI odds for their game against Serbia this Sunday.
While most of Southgate’s 11 seems to be locked in for Sunday, he does have 2 or 3 decisions to make. Those being:
(1) Who Partners John Stones at centre back?
(2) Midfield Gap to be filled?
(3) Attacking Reinforcements needed?
England Starting XI Odds
Who Partners John Stones?
Marc Guéhi – 1/6
The most likely partner for Stones Sunday is Crystal Palace defender Marc Guéhi (23) who came through the youth system at Chelsea. Following a brilliant season with Palace where he appeared in 29 games in all competitions he has emerged as a likely starter for their opening game.
Guéhi is a modern-day centre-back who is very comfortable on the ball whether it be dribbling with his 0.31 successful take-ons per 90 in the 75th percentile for all defenders. He has a long range of passes with his 0.04 Assists and 0.98 Shot Creating Actions in the 77th and 75th percentile.
Those stats should only improve in a more dominant English side, although I’d be concerned about his less-than-impressive aerial ability despite his stature.
Joe Gomez – 7/4
Joe Gomez (27) is another player with a good chance of starting England’s opening game of the tournament having played a staggering 51 matches in all competitions for Liverpool in the 23/24 season.
Gomez, who has been capped by England 11 times, came off the bench in their latest defeat against Iceland for Trippier at left-back. While it is less likely he starts at CB besides Stones due to his versatility and being left-footed there is a chance he starts at LB ahead of Trippier.
Unlike the former option, Gomez is strong in the air as long as being a competent passer his 1.83 Aerials Won, 69.66 Passes Attempted and 4.89 Progressive Passes all in the 94th, 91st and 80th percentile for all fullbacks.
Lewis Dunk – 7/2
Another contender to start Sunday for England is veteran defender and Brighton Captain Lewis Dunk (32) who played 43 matches all season for Brighton scoring 4 times and assisting 1.
Lewis has been capped 6 times by England since making his debut in 2018 after progressing through the leagues of the English Divisions. Dunk ticks the ball playing boxes with 102.95 Passes Attempted and 1.43 Shot Creating Actions in the 99th and 92nd percentile for all centre-backs.
The most likely partner for Stones Sunday is Crystal Palace defender Marc Guéhi (23) who came through the youth system at Chelsea. Following a brilliant season with Palace where he appeared in 29 games in all competitions he has emerged as a likely starter for their opening game.
Dunk might be defensively strong and good on the ball, but I think his lack of pace will come against him when it comes to final selection.
Ezri Konsa – 7/2
Aston Villa defender Ezri Konsa (26) is another contender for the final CB slot besides Stones having played his way into contention this season for his performances at club level playing 50 games and scoring once across competitions.
Konsa this season has nearly had a 50:50 split of appearances between CB and RB. However, like his teammates, he has strong ball-playing credentials with 0.56 Successful Take Ons and 91.1% Pass Completion in the 97th and 89th percentile.
Likely to add to his 4 caps at this tournament, but with his lack of aerial prowess, I don’t think he will start.
Midfield Gap?
Conor Gallagher – 7/4
The next selection decision for Southgate will be who plays beside Declan Rice in the centre of midfield and a lot may depend on how attacking or defensive Southgate wants to be for the opener.
If Southgate is looking for an all-action “jack of all trades” Chelsea midfielder Gallagher (24) could be an option after 50 appearances 7 goals and 9 assists in the 23/24 season. Gallagher is criminally underrated tidy in possession 89.2% Pass Completion (87th percentile) a competent dribbler 1.09 Successful Take Ons (79th percentile) and gives up strong defensive contributions.
He’s been capped 13 times by his country and certainly has a role to play, he would be a non-committal choice in a sense from Southgate, but I don’t think he will start this game.
Kobbie Mainoo – 9/4
Another option for England is the Manchester United teenage sensation Kobbie Mainoo (19) who is coming in his first full senior season where he played 35 times, scoring 5 goals and assisting 3.
Mainoo is a class act who oozes composure in everything he does. When you watch him he gives the impression of an experienced head, not some player learning his trade. He can do it all with his 1.46 Successful Take Ons, 0.14 Non-Penalty Goals and 86.3% Pass Completion in the 92nd, 81st and 72nd percentile for all midfielders. If Southgate wants the best balance in midfield Kobbie should start.
Having been capped three times for England in 2024 he has a huge future ahead of him although I’m very sceptical to see if Southgate has the cahoonas to give Mainoo genuine minutes.
Trent Alexander-Arnold – 1/4
The most likely partner for Rice in midfield is Liverpool RB Trent Alexander-Arnold (25) who played 37 times in all competitions this season at club level scoring 3 goals and providing 9 assists.
Trent is someone who has been touted to play the CM role for some time due to his ability on the ball and range of passing his 5.25 Shot Creating Actions, 87.71 Passes Attempted and 8.69 Progressive Passes all in the 99th and 98th percentile for all full backs.
While he often occupies the same half-space for Liverpool, it’s very different having the tactical discipline to do so for an entire 90 minutes. That being said he is a likely starter for this game, and he could be an ace in the pack if the decision goes right.
Attacking Reinforcements?
Cole Palmer - 10/3
The final selection decision will come down to whether Southgate starts Bellingham or Foden as a partner to Rice with the other playing in the 10-position freeing up a slot out wide.
After signing for Chelsea from City last summer he had a sensational first year at the club being their shining light with 27 goals and 15 assists from 48 games in all competitions. For England, he has 1 Goal in 4 Appearances since debuting in 2023.
Palmer would be a bold and exciting selection from Southgate (who deserve it on merit) his 6.77 Progressive Passes and the 0.45 Non-Penalty Goals in the 94th percentile and 95th percentile, should be more of an asset for England than it will end up being at the tournament (not due to any failings from Palmer mind you).
Anthony Gordon – 11/2
Another option out wide is the Newcastle winger who has 12 Goals and 11 Assists in 48 matches this season. He has been capped 3 times for England since debuting in 2024.
One thing in Gordon’s favour is that as well as his attacking output, he also offers discipline defensively and should put a shift in when and if required. However, I can’t see Southgate giving him many minutes in this tournament aside from the “easier/lesser” games,
England Predicted Starting XI (4-2-3-1)
With that being said, I think Southgate will stay with his notoriously safe selection for the opener with no shock decisions made.
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