After taking the Premier League by storm in the first half of this season; can Aston Villa win the Premier League?
The festive football period is one of the most anticipated and action-packed times in the UK football calendar and often ends up defining how the rest of the season goes for those from the top to the bottom of the table.
One of the biggest stories in the Premier League not just this season but in 2023 has been the performances of Aston Villa under Unai Emery. As of December 22nd the club currently occupies 3rd place in the Premier League table, 4 points ahead of Man City in 4th, level on points with 2nd-placed Liverpool and 1-point behind league leaders Arsenal.
Echoes of Leicester?
The form of Aston Villa hasn’t gone unnoticed with plenty of pundits, fans and neutrals praising the work achieved by Emery since being appointed as head coach in October 2022.
Since the club's 1-0 victory over Arsenal at the beginning of the month, whispers over their performances have become increasingly louder with plenty of people beginning to compare the parallels between Leicester’s 2015-2016 Premier League victory with Villa’s early-season form.
Champions League qualification originally seemed like 'the dream scenario' for those involved in the club, but could they go even better and replicate Leiester’s unlikely 15/16 Premier League title victory?
Commercialised World
We enter what some might consider one of the most ‘magical times of the year.’ A time for family, giving, relaxation and reflection. However, often romanticism and said true meaning can be lost in the increased commercialisation and gluttony that comes with this time of year. Why is this relevant to football you might ask?
Similar criticisms could be attributed to ‘modern-day football’ footballers getting further detached from fans. The fiasco that was/is the European Super League, Sportswashing and clubs dying, it could be argued that football is rapidly becoming an industry of the super-elite business people and multinational corporations. Something similar to how Christmas could sometimes look from a cynic’s point of view.
Cup Fairytales
The popular argument when it comes to looking at 'elite-level football' is that a team could fluke a cup victory if all the right jigsaw pieces fall into place. Think of the 12/13 season in England, Bradford vs Swansea contested the League Cup Final albeit the latter won out 0-5. The FA Cup Final that season saw a relegated Wigan side beat Premier League runners-up Man City 0-1 through a late Watson goal.
More recently during the 18/19 La Liga season Valencia finished 26 points behind Barcelona in the league but overcame them 2-1 in the Copa del Rey final.
While 'fairytale' cup victories remain rare, they’re still far more common than sustaining a title-winning season across 34+ games when playing elite-level football. This is natural as 'repeatability' is what dictates the difference between skill and luck, the larger sample size of a league season means the chance of an underdog victory will always be rare.
League Successes
'Shock' league title victories still occasionally occur across the big five European leagues from Kaiserslautern’s unlikely Bundesliga victory in 1997/98, Deportivo La Coruña claiming their only La Liga crown in 2000 and Montpellier winning their first Ligue 1 title in 2012.
However, it’s Leicester's 15/16 Premier League winning season that will be entrenched in the minds of most fans as arguably the greatest underdog story in professional football history. That Leicester team went from narrowly avoiding relegation, to Premier League Champions in a season having only invested £27.3 million in the off-season. It shows that money doesn’t always have to win!
Following that success, former manager of the club Martin O’Neill (1995-2000) who was manager of the Republic of Ireland at the time (2013-2018) claimed that Leicester’s triumph showed that ''Romanticism is still alive in football'. A fair assessment to the 5,000/1 shot that had bookmakers blushing and out of pocket.
It’s somewhat ironic that the next team to shock the Premier League could be Aston Villa who Martin managed from 2006-2010.
Aston Villa's League Title Credentials
Don’t let the facts get twisted amongst the madness, Aston Villa is one of the oldest and most successful clubs in England, having won the Football League First Division seven times, the FA Cup seven times, the League Cup five times, and the European Cup and European Super Cup once.
You read that correctly, Aston Villa is a former European Cup winner a feat never achieved by the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham, or Newcastle and up until last season hadn’t even been achieved by the juggernaut club of the last decade Man City.
Aston Villa’s success in the competition came during the 1981/82 season where a 67th minute goal by Peter White earned them a historic 1-0 victory over German Giants Bayern Munich.
While Aston Villa has failed to reach those heights in recent decades, it’s set an illustrious history for the club. That means that while Unai Emery’s Aston Villa winning the 2023/24 Premier League title would be a remarkable feat, and up on one of the greatest of all time, it would still rank a step below the shock level of Leicester’s win in 2016.
Aston Villa are 14/1 in the 2023/24 Premier League winner market according to the latest football betting odds at BoyleSports. That puts them behind only Man City (5/4), Arsenal (9/4) and Liverpool (11/4).
Top at Christmas Key?
While not guaranteed, if results this coming weekend go the way of the Villains, Aston Villa could be top of the table come Christmas Day. Why is this significant?
Well, in the 124 English top-flight seasons that have taken place, the side at the top of the table on Christmas Day has won the league 56 times (45%). That significance has further increased during the 'Premier League Era' with the side top at Christmas winning the league 51.6% of the time.
While this could be considered an arbitrary point given the variability of games played season by season, for example at this point last year due to the World Cup 16 rounds of fixtures were played in the Premier League vs this year it will be 18 completed. The data suggests that there is still momentum in place about being top at Christmas which could help drive teams to success each season.
Interestingly, one of the sides to be top at Christmas and not win the Premier League was Aston Villa during the 1998/99 season. Aston Villa raced into an early lead in the league unbeaten until November despite having sold star striker Dwight Yorke to Man United the previous summer.
A poor second half to their campaign meant they eventually finished 6th in the table while former striker Yorke won Player of the Season after scoring 29 goals and helping guide Man United to their historic treble success where they won the Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup.
Tale of the Tape
Aston Villa are serious contenders to shock the Premier League with a league title if they continue their flying form in the league. With 17 games played in their Premier League campaign, they have 12 victories, 2 draws and 3 defeats. Those results have them 4 points clear of Man City, level on points with Liverpool and 1 point off league leaders Arsenal.
Emery’s side seem to be getting stronger with every passing week too with 13 points won from their last 5 league games. That stretch includes a 1-2 victory over Tottenham along with 1-0 victories against Man City and Arsenal.
Aston Villa play Sheffield United at the weekend before Christmas and if they can avoid defeat it would mark their longest unbeaten run of the season with 7 games. If they go one better though they could be top of the table at Christmas which would be the perfect present for Villa fans.
The Progress
No matter how the second half of the season goes, Unai Emery and his side can be proud of their progress from last season where they finished 22/23 in 7th place with a total of 61 points. That worked out to an average of 1.60 Points Per Game and 28 points off Premier League winners Man City.
Their current season total of 38 points after 17 games works out to an average of 2.23 points Per Game. If they can continue in that vein of form for the remainder of the season they would finish on a total of 85 points. A total which would’ve put them 2nd last season and into the Champions League places behind only Man City who won last season’s Premier League with an 89-point total.
This has been a phenomenally positive season for the club, and they currently show no signs of letting up!
A Season of Shocks?
Along with Aston Villa’s rise to Premier League title contention, a similar story can be observed in La Liga where Girona are currently 2nd in the league with 45 points from their 18 games. They are level with Real Madrid, who are in the midst of an injury crisis, with the same number of games played and 7 points clear of defending Champions Barcelona.
It's been a remarkable rise for a club which finished 10th last season and 39 points behind league winners Barcelona on 88 points.
Whatever happens next in both leagues is anyone’s guess, but with cries and constant chatter about the 'Super League' not going away, the challenges of Aston Villa and Girona against the supposed 'elite' shows that romanticism is alive and kicking in football, you just have to look harder for the stories!
*Prices subject to fluctuation
