Best Actor Oscars Prediction, Odds, Favourites, & Preview – 97th Academy Awards

In this post, you can find our Best Actor Oscars prediction and odds as we preview the chances of each of the betting favourites for the prestigious award ahead of the 97th Academy Awards.

The Best Actor Oscar, officially known as the Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role, is presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

This year, the Best Actor Oscar winner will be announced at the 97th Academy Awards ceremony on March 2nd.

Below, you can find everything you need to know about the top contenders for this year’s award, plus key information about previous Best Actor Oscar winners.

Best Actor Oscars Odds

Best Actor Oscars Betting Favourites & Preview

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (4/11)

Implied Probability: 73.3%

Brody has been the dominant force this awards season, winning almost every major Best Actor award for his portrayal of László Tóth, a Hungarian-Jewish architect who survives the Holocaust and emigrates to the United States.

The emotional weight of his role, combined with the broader social climate, could resonate strongly with voters. However, the one notable blemish on his near-perfect record is his loss at the SAG Awards, often considered the most predictive precursor to the Oscars. Still, he remains a worthy 4/11 favourite to claim his second Best Actor trophy.

Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (19/10)

Implied Probability: 34.5%

Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan has drawn widespread acclaim, showcasing his ability to embody the legendary singer-songwriter’s unique mannerisms, voice, and transformation from folk icon to rock pioneer.

His SAG Awards win is particularly significant, as the guild's voting body overlaps heavily with the Academy, making him a legitimate threat to Brody’s frontrunner status. Unlike Brody, who already has an Oscar to his name, Chalamet remains in search of his first win, which could give him an extra boost from voters looking to reward a rising star.

Given the Academy’s history of rewarding biographical performances, particularly those depicting cultural icons, Chalamet’s chances cannot be overlooked. At odds of 19/10, he offers solid value in the betting market, especially given that the Oscars often spring surprises when there’s a tight two-horse race.

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (16/1)

Implied Probability: 5.9%

Fiennes plays Cardinal Thomas Lawrence, a British liberal overseeing a papal election while uncovering deep secrets within the Vatican. Though a well-respected veteran, Fiennes has not won any major Best Actor awards this season, making his odds of 16/1 a fair reflection of his outside chances.

Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (33/1)

Implied Probability: 2.9%

Stan’s portrayal of a young Donald Trump has generated discussion, but with limited major award wins outside of niche critic groups, he remains an unlikely contender. His Golden Globe win in the Musical or Comedy category doesn’t hold much weight here, and at 33/1, an Oscar victory would be a major shock.

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (50/1)

Implied Probability: 2.0%

Domingo earned widespread praise for his role in Sing Sing and has collected wins at the Satellite and Gotham Awards. However, he hasn’t picked up any of the major industry prizes, and at 50/1, he appears to be a long shot for the Oscar this time around.

Best Actor Oscars Prediction

This category is shaping up as a showdown between Brody and Chalamet. While Brody’s dominance makes him the deserving favourite, Chalamet’s SAG victory keeps the race interesting. If you're looking for value, Chalamet at 19/10 might be worth a punt, but Brody still holds the strongest position heading into Oscar night.

This category is shaping up as a showdown between Brody and Chalamet. While Brody’s dominance makes him the deserving favourite, Chalamet’s SAG victory keeps the race interesting. Given the significance of the SAG Awards as a predictor, Chalamet could very well edge out Brody on the night and claim his first Oscar.

Prediction: Timothee Chalamet to win Best Actor

Previous Best Actor Oscar Winners

Most Best Actor Oscar Award Wins

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