This is our Benfica vs Real Madrid prediction with expert betting tips plus the latest odds and match analysis ahead of this Champions League 2025/26 play-off first leg in Lisbon.
Real Madrid return to the scene of one of the most dramatic Champions League matches in recent years as they tackle underdogs Benfica in the play-offs. Benfica were on the verge of being eliminated from the competition a fortnight ago despite leading nine-man Real 3-2 heading into the closing stages of their final league-phase fixture.
The Lisbon giants needed another goal to keep their Champions League hopes alive, and it came from the unlikeliest of sources as goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin headed home a free-kick in the 8th minute of stoppage time to spark wild scenes at the Estadio da Luz.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction – UCL 25/26 Play-Off Leg 1
That 4-2 win saw Jose Mourinho’s side snatch the 24th and final qualification spot while Real dropped from third to ninth and, by quirk of fate, the two Iberian superpowers will now meet again in the play-offs.
Los Blancos, who are 10/1 to be crowned European champions for a record-extending 16th time in May, should have learned from that defeat, and a Real Madrid win with BTTS @ 5/2 is our first Benfica vs Real Madrid prediction.
Betting Odds
Benfica vs Real Madrid Betting Odds – Champions League 2025/26 Play-Off Leg 1
Result | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Benfica | 13/5 | 27.8% |
Real Madrid | 20/23 | 53.5% |
Draw | 11/4 | 26.7% |
*Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.
Real Madrid are slight favourites at 20/23.
Benfica are priced at 13/5, while the draw is 11/4.
To Qualify Odds
Benfica – 16/5
Real Madrid – 1/5
Early Payout
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Will Either Team Go 2+ Goals Ahead In Benfica vs Real Madrid? UCL 2025/26 Leg 1
Benfica vs Real Madrid Preview
How to Watch
How To Watch Benfica vs Real Madrid
The Benfica vs Real Madrid Champions League play-off first leg in Lisbon is scheduled to begin at 8pm on Tuesday and will be shown live on Amazon Prime.
Form Guides
Benfica Form Guide
Benfica welcome Real on a five-match unbeaten run in all competitions, of which four have ended in victory, including that memorable home clash with the European Cup’s most successful club.
That has helped the Eagles remain unbeaten in the Primeira Liga after 22 games but, due to a host of draws, they are seven points behind leaders Porto.
Benfica have now won three of their four meeti ngs with Real – although prior to this season they had not faced each other in over 60 years – and you can get Benfica vs Real Madrid odds of 5/1 for them to add a 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 victory to that collection.
Benfica’s biggest goal threat looks to be Greece striker Vangelis Pavlidis, who is 11/8 to build to his 22 goals already this season, while Norwegian youngster Andreas Schjelderup is 7/2 to notch another against Real after his brace last month.
Real Madrid Form Guide
Alvaro Arbeloa’s reign as Real boss got off to a poor start, knocked out of the Copa del Rey by Albacete, but they have reeled off six wins in seven games since then.
The one setback was that loss to Benfica and it proved an especially costly one as it meant Real now have an extra hurdle to try and negotiate - and Mourinho would love to get one over his old club.
Real warmed up for the trip west with a 4-1 win over Real Sociedad that saw them replace Barcelona at the top of LaLiga at the weekend.
Who Will Be The First Goalscorer In Benfica vs Real Madrid? UCL 2025/26 Leg 1
Kylian Mbappe sat that game out as he battles a knee injury but Arbeloa is hopeful the red-hot striker will be able to face Benfica.
The France captain has scored 43 goals in all competitions for club and country this season, including a record-breaking 13 times in seven Champions League appearances.
Mbappe is 16/5 to net at least twice tomorrow, which completes our Benfica vs Real Madrid betting tips.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Predictions
Benfica vs Real Madrid Betting Tips – Champions League 2025/26 Play-Off Leg 1
1. Real Madrid to win & BTTS @ 5/2
Real Madrid’s strong record against Portuguese sides gives them the edge here, having won eight of their last 10 Champions League meetings with clubs from Portugal while averaging over two goals per game in that run. They’re consistently dangerous, but far from watertight: Madrid have actually lost six of their last 11 matches in the competition, highlighting a vulnerability that keeps BTTS firmly in play.
Benfica, meanwhile, have shown they can strike against Spanish opposition at home, scoring exactly four goals in each of their last two such wins, including their 4-2 victory over Madrid only a couple of weeks ago. With both teams leading the competition for goals from direct attacks, this shapes up as a game where goals come from both sides, even if Los Blancos ultimately edge it.
2. Vangelis Pavlidis to score anytime @ 11/8
Pavlidis enters this match in outstanding form with nine Champions League goals this season. He is one away from becoming only the second Benfica player to reach double figures in the competition. His finishing has been central to Benfica’s recent home success, especially in big European fixtures.
Real Madrid’s defensive record strengthens the case further. They have lost more games than they have won across their last eleven Champions League outings, and they have been conceding regularly. Benfica have scored four goals in each of their last two home wins over Spanish opposition, which creates a very favourable environment for Pavlidis to find the net again.
3. Kylian Mbappe to score 2+ goals @ 14/5
Mbappé has produced one of the most impressive Champions League scoring runs ever. With thirteen goals in seven matches, he owns the best goals-per-game rate of any player with at least five appearances in a single European Cup season. Real Madrid’s style of play suits him, particularly their strength in direct attacking situations, where they are tied for the most goals in the competition.
His partnership with Vinícius Júnior is also a major factor. The pair have created more chances for each other than any other duo in the competition this season, which means Mbappé consistently receives high-quality service. Given his current scoring rhythm, another multi-goal performance is well within reach.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction
Prediction: Real Madrid win and both teams to score
Real Madrid come into this rematch in much stronger form after six wins in seven, and they should have learned plenty from their chaotic 4–2 loss in Lisbon.
Benfica are still a threat going forward, especially at home, so Real are fancied to edge it while both teams find the net.
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*Prices are subject to fluctuation
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