Newcastle stage their biggest day of the jumps season on Saturday courtesy of the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle (2.05).
Won by the likes of Harchibald and Go Native during the last 10 years, it takes a hurdler out of the top drawer to win this historic race, especially on testing soft ground on such a stiff track and one who looks tailor-made for the job is the current 7/4 favourite, Irving.
This dual Grade 2 winner last season was set to make a winning return in another Grade 2 at Wincanton a few weeks ago, but for falling at the last, and seeks to make amends here. The only concern is that he flopped when favourite during his only foray into Grade 1 class at the Cheltenham Festival in March, although he does emerge from the right end of the market…
Trends Summary
Of the last 10 Fighting Fifth Hurdles…
10 returned 4/1 or shorter – others were 0-44
10 made the top two last time
9 won over 2m
8 had 1-4 runs in Grade 1 hurdles
7 were officially rated 151 or higher
7 won 1-3 Grade 1 events
N Henderson won it twice
Also in the top two last time was Willie Mullins’ Arctic Fire (7/2), a 5yo who was Grade 1 placed last season, and was beaten 3l in a Grade 2 on his return last month. The overall view is that he may have reached the ceiling of his ability, however, suggesting Grade 1 company could prove too hot.
Another last time out winner was John Ferguson’s Purple Bay (6/1), who also recorded a career best in landing a Grade 2 at Wincanton two weeks ago, and while he is respected, it needs noting that particular race at Wincanton hasn’t provided the winner of this race during the last 10 years (0-10).
Ferguson also saddles Sea Lord (16/1), who makes his return having last been seen when well beaten in an Aintree Grade 1 (2m4f, good to soft). It’s possible he never got the trip, and this switch back to 2m will help.
It will be a major shock if either Swaledale Lad (66/1) or Volcanic Jack (500/1) worry the main protagonists.
Recommended Bets
A small field, but very competitive, and while Irving is the “buzz horse”, the fact he blew out the last twice doesn’t make his price of 7/4 of interest. Aurore D’Estruval each-way at 5/1 looks the bet, as he is only 6lb inferior to the favourite, but could still improve further.
Won by the likes of Harchibald and Go Native during the last 10 years, it takes a hurdler out of the top drawer to win this historic race, especially on testing soft ground on such a stiff track and one who looks tailor-made for the job is the current 7/4 favourite, Irving.
This dual Grade 2 winner last season was set to make a winning return in another Grade 2 at Wincanton a few weeks ago, but for falling at the last, and seeks to make amends here. The only concern is that he flopped when favourite during his only foray into Grade 1 class at the Cheltenham Festival in March, although he does emerge from the right end of the market…
Trends Summary
Of the last 10 Fighting Fifth Hurdles…
10 returned 4/1 or shorter – others were 0-44
10 made the top two last time
9 won over 2m
8 had 1-4 runs in Grade 1 hurdles
7 were officially rated 151 or higher
7 won 1-3 Grade 1 events
N Henderson won it twice
Also in the top two last time was Willie Mullins’ Arctic Fire (7/2), a 5yo who was Grade 1 placed last season, and was beaten 3l in a Grade 2 on his return last month. The overall view is that he may have reached the ceiling of his ability, however, suggesting Grade 1 company could prove too hot.
Elsewhere, John Quinn’s Aurore D’Estruval (5/1) was beaten 10l in a Grade 1 at Aintree last April, prior to showing considerable improvement in landing a Listed hurdle at Wetherby three weeks ago (2m, good). A winner on heavy ground, he could surprise a few people come Saturday.""
Another last time out winner was John Ferguson’s Purple Bay (6/1), who also recorded a career best in landing a Grade 2 at Wincanton two weeks ago, and while he is respected, it needs noting that particular race at Wincanton hasn’t provided the winner of this race during the last 10 years (0-10).
Ferguson also saddles Sea Lord (16/1), who makes his return having last been seen when well beaten in an Aintree Grade 1 (2m4f, good to soft). It’s possible he never got the trip, and this switch back to 2m will help.
It will be a major shock if either Swaledale Lad (66/1) or Volcanic Jack (500/1) worry the main protagonists.
Recommended Bets
A small field, but very competitive, and while Irving is the “buzz horse”, the fact he blew out the last twice doesn’t make his price of 7/4 of interest. Aurore D’Estruval each-way at 5/1 looks the bet, as he is only 6lb inferior to the favourite, but could still improve further.
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