We take a look at the latest Arizona Election Odds as we examine one of the key battleground states ahead of the US Presidential Election next November.
Ahead of the US Election, Arizona is viewed as one of the key “Swing States” which could ultimately decide the winner of the US Presidential Election.
Donald Trump with the Republican Party won this state in 2016 with his 48.8% share of the vote to Hilary Clinton’s 44.58% the smallest margin for a Republican in the state since Arizona's founding in 1912, with Calvin Coolidge's 5.8% victory in 1924 being the second closest.
However, in 2020 Arizona turned blue with Joe Biden ousting Donald Trump by a knife edge with 49.36% of the vote compared to Trump’s 49.06%. It’s no surprise that the odds are extremely tight ahead of the 2024 election.
Arizona Election Odds
Team | Odds | Chance |
Kamala Harris - Democrats | 11/8 | 42.1% |
Donald Trump - Republicans | 8/15 | 65.2% |
Kamala Harris is currently a 11/8 outsider in the race to win Arizona which implies a 42.1% chance that the Democrat Party win the state for the second successive US Presidential Election.
Donald Trump is seen as a 8/15 favourite to win Arizona which implies a 65.2% chance that he wins the state for the second time in his political history having won it on the way to his election in 2016.
Per OddsChecker, the race to win Arizona is seen as more of a foregone conclusion though with 63% of punters predicting a Donald Trump and Republican Party victory with 37% of bets going on Kamala Harris to do the business for the Democratic Party.
What is a Swing State?
A swing state (also known as a battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes.
The seven “Swing States” which is set to decide the 2024 US Election have been dubbed as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The Arizonan State was won by Joe Biden in the 2020 US Presidential Election and was won by Donald Trump in the 2016 US Presidential Election.
Latest Polling
Per FiveThirtyEight, which is a site that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States, the race to win the state of Arizona is on a knife edge.
Factoring for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects Trump is currently leading in the polls by the slimmest of margins on a polling average of 46.2% compared to Kamala Harris who is on a total of 45.6%.
Polls should always be taken with a pinch of salt as the 2016 US Presidential Election proved but those poll numbers has this swing state a lot tighter than the initial odds would suggest.
Previous Results
During the 2020 Presidential Election, the state of Arizona was won by Joe Biden with a cumulative vote of 1,672,143 which amounted to 49.36% of the vote compared with Trump’s total of 1,661,686 which was 49.24% of the vote. Thus despite increasing his votes in 2016, Trump lost the state.
In 2016 the state was won by Donald Trump where he won a total of 1,252,401 votes for a share of 48.08% of the vote to win the state. While his opponent Hilary Clinton received 1,161,167 for a share of 44.58% of the vote.
Arizona Election Prediction & Best Bet
Prediction: Donald Trump - (The Republican Party)
While this is theoretically a “Swing State” it does tend to favour the Republican Candidate with the 2020 election the first time that a Democrat candidate took the 16 electoral college votes since 1996 with Bill Clinton and before that, it was Harry Truman in 1948.
The odds have Donald Trump comfortable favourite, but I suspect it’s currently far closer when considering recent polls and Arizona. Donald Trump might be the likely favourite but Kamala’s odds would present more value given the tight polling data.
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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