2025 NBA Christmas Day Predictions & Betting Guide

In this post, we are bringing you NBA Christmas Day predictions, betting odds and breakdowns of what promises to be a feast of festive basketball.

Christmas Day games in the NBA are a time-honoured tradition. The league has been playing games on the holiday since 1947, a year after the creation of the league. It’s truly a staple of the American sporting calendar and brings with it some of basketball’s most iconic memories.

Here’s everything you need to know about the next instalment of NBA Christmas Day magic.

Christmas Day Schedule

NBA Christmas Day Schedule – Game Times For UK & Ireland

5:00pm GMT — New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers

7:30pm GMT — Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs

10:00pm GMT — Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks

1:00am GMT — Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets

3:30am GMT — Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Christmas NBA Games – Game-by-Game Betting Preview

Knicks vs Cavaliers

New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers (5:00pm GMT)

Betting Odds

Moneyline Odds

Knicks – 4/9

Cavaliers – 13/8

Handicap Betting

Knicks – -5.5 @ 20/23

Cavaliers – +5.5 @ 10/11

Total Points Over/Under

Over 236.5 @ 10/11

Under 236.5 @ 5/6

Betting Breakdown

The Knicks come into this match-up as Eastern Conference favourites, having won the NBA Cup and maintaining a strong ATS record of 18-11. They have been trending positively, particularly with double-big line-ups featuring Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The Cavaliers, in contrast, have struggled this season following a No. 1 seed last year, holding the worst ATS record in the league at 8-21.

Cleveland has faced challenges recently and this has been compounded by the loss of a key player in Evan Mobley. He has been out since December 13th with a Grade 1 left calf strain, which severely impacts their match-up against the Knicks’ size. Adding to their troubles, the Cavs will be playing their third game in four nights, following back-to-back match-ups.

With the Knicks at home in Madison Square Garden and the Cavaliers fatigued and missing crucial personnel, this game is shaping up to be a clear opportunity for New York to control the pace and leverage their interior dominance. Expect the Knicks to pull away in the second half, likely covering the spread comfortably and keeping the total within reach of the under.

Betting Tips

ATS Tip: Knicks -5.5

O/U Tip: Under 236.5

Prediction: Knicks win 122-110

Thunder vs Spurs

Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs (7:30pm GMT)

Betting Odds

Moneyline Odds

Thunder – 1/6

Spurs – 10/3

Handicap Betting

Thunder – -10.5 @ 20/23

Spurs – +10.5 @ 10/11

Total Points Over/Under

Over – 233.5 @ 20/23

Under – 233.5 @ 20/23

Betting Breakdown

The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs clash at the Paycom Center, with the Thunder making their Christmas Day debut featuring stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. Both teams are top Western contenders, with OKC at 26-3 and San Antonio at 21-7, setting up a high-profile battle. The Spurs have been consistently reliable as underdogs of 5.5+ this season, covering the spread 4-0.

Recent scoring trends point towards a lower-scoring game, with the Thunder averaging 228.4 points over their last ten games and the Spurs at 236.9, despite some defensive improvements. Their combined season average of 242.4 is tempered by opponents only scoring 219.9 points on average, supporting the under.

Expect a tightly contested encounter, with San Antonio potentially keeping it close against the Thunder's home advantage. Betting tips favour the Spurs +10.5 against the spread, while the under 233.5 remains an attractive pick given both teams’ defensive tendencies and scoring patterns.

Betting Tip

ATS Pick : Spurs +10.5

O/U Pick : Under 233.5

Prediction: Thunder win 118 – 114

Warriors vs Mavericks

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks (10:00pm GMT)

Betting Odds

Moneyline Odds

Warriors – 1/3

Mavericks – 11/5

Handicap Betting

Warriors – -7.5 @ 10/11

Mavericks – +7.5 @ 20/23

Total Points Over/Under

Over – 226.5 @ 20/23

Under – 226.5 @ 20/23

Betting Breakdown

The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks at the Chase Center in what promises to be a fascinating clash of experience versus youth. Curry continues to shine, but the Warriors’ inconsistencies and defensive lapses make them vulnerable. Dallas’ young stars, led by Cooper Flagg, have shown poise in crunch time and can exploit Golden State’s weaknesses.

The Mavericks have been competitive in tight games and are expected to keep this one close. Their efficient scoring and ability to control tempo support the pick of the Mavericks +7.5 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Warriors’ limitations make the under 226.5 a sensible play.

Expect a closely fought contest with the Mavericks hanging around throughout. Golden State may win narrowly, but Dallas should cover the spread, and a lower-scoring game is likely, reinforcing the under 226.5 as the key betting angle.

Betting Tips

Mavericks +7.5

Under 226.5

Prediction: Warriors win 112-108

Lakers vs Rockets

Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets (1:00am GMT)

Betting Odds

Moneyline Odds

Lakers – 6/4

Rockets – 8/15

Handicap Betting

Lakers – +4.5 @ 20/23

Rockets – -4.5 @ 10/11

Total Points Over/Under

Over – 228.5 @ 5/6

Under –228.5 @ 10/11

Betting Breakdown

The Los Angeles Lakers host the Houston Rockets at Crypto.com Arena in what promises to be a fast-paced Christmas Day showdown. The soon-to-be 41-year-old LeBron James remains elite, defying the laws of time and basketball, but the Lakers have been inconsistent this season and have battled injuries that have tested their depth. Houston’s young core, led by Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün, thrives in transition and can push the pace, likely creating a high-scoring matchup.

Both teams have the potential to rack up points in bursts. The Lakers will look to leverage their size and experience inside, while the Rockets will counter with speed and perimeter shooting. The pace of play and offensive firepower on both sides make the over 228.5 a sensible pick.

Expect a closely contested game with lead changes throughout. While the Rockets can challenge effectively, the Lakers’ home advantage and ability to control key moments suggest they’ll keep the game tight and cover the +4.5 spread. Combined with the scoring potential on both ends, this is shaping up as a high-scoring affair, reinforcing the over 228.5 as the key betting angle in this one.

Betting Tip

ATS Tip: Lakers +4.5

O/U Tip: Over 228.5

Prediction: Lakers win 119-116

Nuggets vs Timberwolves

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves (3:30am GMT)

Betting Odds

Moneyline Odds

Nuggets – 8/15

Timberwolves – 7/5

Handicap Betting

Nuggets – -4.5 @ 20/23

Timberwolves – +4.5 @ 10/11

Total Points Over/Under

Over – 237.5 @ 20/23

Under – 237.5 @ 20/23

Betting Breakdown

The Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena in a classic battle of size and skill. Nikola Jokić continues to dominate as the centerpiece of Denver’s offence, while the Nuggets rank among the top five in both offensive efficiency and rebounding. Despite injuries to key role players testing their depth, Denver’s mix of experience and talent makes them a tough home opponent.

The Timberwolves rely on elite defence, anchored by Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, with Anthony Edwards emerging as a clutch scorer. Minnesota will aim to slow the pace and force Denver into tough perimeter shots, but the Nuggets’ pick-and-roll efficiency and ability to get Jokić touches in the paint should help them control the game’s tempo.

Expect a tightly contested match with both teams trading runs. Denver’s home advantage and Jokić’s dominance suggest they’ll edge the win and cover the -4.5 spread. With the Timberwolves’ defensive focus and the likely slower pace, the scoring should stay contained, making under 237.5 a solid betting angle.

Betting Tip

ATS Tip: Nuggets -4.5

O/U Tip: Under 237.5

Prediction: Nuggets win 118-112

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.