In this post I take a look at the 2024 All-Ireland Football odds, betting favourites and analyse the chances of the top teams.
And then there were… 16. The field has been narrowed down as the provincial championships draws to a close and we get ever closer to the start of the All-Ireland series.
2023 All-Ireland Champions Dublin look to defend their crown this year as some of their legendary players seek a 10th All-Ireland crown. Last year’s beaten finalists Kerry seek revenge while Derry look best positioned among the rest to upset the top two.
2024 All-Ireland Football Odds
Team | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Dublin | 6/4 | 40% |
Kerry | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Donegal | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Galway | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Derry | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Armagh | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Mayo | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Tyrone | 40/1 | 2.4% |
Cork | 66/1 | 1.5% |
Louth | 100/1 | 1% |
Roscommon | 125/1 | 0.8% |
Monaghan | 150/1 | 0.7% |
Cavan | 200/1 | 0.5% |
Clare | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Meath | 750/1 | 0.1% |
Westmeath | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
2024 All-Ireland Football Betting Favourites
Dublin – 2024 All-Ireland Football Favourites
Dublin are the favourites for the 2024 All-Ireland Football Championship at 6/4 per the latest Gaelic football odds at BoyleSports. Those odds imply that Dublin have a 40% chance of winning this year’s Championship.
Dublin’s 2023 Championship Campaign
The Boys in Blue are reigning All-Ireland Champions and they looked to be back to their best at times in last year’s Championship (the second half of their Quarter-Final against Mayo and the All-Ireland Final against Kerry spring to mind).
In the Leinster Championship, they had a small scare against Kildare, a game which was in the balance until the end but they would prevail 0-14 to 0-12. Apart from that it was the usual procession with a 27-point win against Laois in the quarter-final and a 21-point victory over Louth in the Leinster Final.
The All-Ireland group stage was a similar story for the Dubs. They struggled for large periods in their first outing against Roscommon in Croke Park and could count themselves lucky in the end to earn a draw. Dessie Farrell’s men raised their performance level after that result with a 9-point win over Kildare and 24-point victory against Sligo sufficient to see them top the group and advance to the All-Ireland Quarter-Finals.
At the quarter-final stage, they would meet familiar foes Mayo. The Westerners put it up to Dublin in the first half but were unable to withstand what was to come from Dessie Farrell’s troops in the 3rd quarter as the Dubs ran riot before eventually sealing a massive 12-point win. That second half performance from the boys in blue put the rest of the country on notice as to their Sam Maguire ambitions.
Monaghan awaited them in the semi-final and they were able to hang in there with Dublin for 65 minutes. Then Dublin turned the screw with their strong bench proving decisive in a 7-point margin of victory at the final whistle.
They would then take on Kerry in the All-Ireland Final. Dublin solved the David Clifford equation as the Fossa superstar was kept quiet (by his standards) which was pivotal in allowing Dublin to run out 2-point winners.
Dublin’s 2024 Results & Fixtures
National League Division 1
Dublin 1-14 3-09 Monaghan | Croke Park, Dublin
Mayo 1-12 0-14 Dublin | MacHale Park, Mayo
Dublin 1-19 1-12 Roscommon | Croke Park, Dublin
Dublin 3-18 1-14 Kerry | Croke Park, Dublin
Derry 1-11 1-16 Dublin | Celtic Park, Derry
Galway 0-14 0-22 Dublin | Pearse Stadium, Galway
Dublin 5-18 0-12 Tyrone | Croke Park, Dublin
Leinster Championship
Dublin 3-19 0-12 Meath | Quarter-Final | Croke Park, Dublin
Dublin 3-22 0-11 Offaly | Semi-Final | Croke Park, Dublin
Dublin 1-19 2-12 Louth | Final | Croke Park, Dublin
All-Ireland SFC Group 2
*Dublin 2-19 0Roscommon | Croke Park, Dublin
Cavan v *Dublin | Kingspan Breffni Park, Cavan
*Dublin v Mayo | Neutral Venue
*These will be Dublin’s fixtures if they win the Leinster Championship. They are 1/33 to win the Leinster Championship ahead of the final against Louth on Sunday, May 12th.
Analysis
I agree with our oddsmakers here and think that Dublin are more than deserving of favouritism. For me, Kerry have more question marks hanging over them heading into this All-Ireland series than Dublin. The only concern you could level against the Dubs is their motivation as last year appeared to be a very emotional win and was billed as the last dance for many of their stars.
If motivation is the only question mark hanging over this Dublin team heading into this campaign then they should be All-Ireland favourites. It’s also worth pointing out that the predicted exodus of experienced campaigners through retirements hasn’t materialised.
Betting Tip
Here are the betting options you have with Dublin;
To win the All-Ireland SFC – 6/4
To qualify for the Final – 8/13
To qualify for the Semi-Final – 1/8
From a betting perspective, I don’t love the value in betting Dublin to win Sam Maguire at 6/4. They are undoubtedly the team to beat however and if you want to bet them to win the Championship then I would prefer to wait and see if their odds drift out a little if they put in a shaky performance in one of the All-Ireland series group stage games. If you could get them at 2/1 then that would be good value for me.
Kerry - All-Ireland Football Second Favourites
The second-favourites for the 2024 All-Ireland Football Championship are Kerry at odds of 5/2. Those odds suggest that Kerry have a 28.6% chance of winning Sam Maguire this season.
Kerry’s 2023 Championship Campaign
We didn’t learn a whole pile about Kerry in the 2023 Munster Championship, nor did they have a whole lot to prove going into the Championship as the defending All-Ireland Champions. They recorded facile victories over Tipperary and later Clare to claim their 84th Munster title.
Mayo travelled to Killarney to take on Kerry in the All-Ireland group stages in what was their first real test of the 2023 Championship. The Kingdom were in for a surprise as Mayo, the National League champions who fell at the first hurdle in Connacht, rolled into Killarney and had their way with Kerry in what would end up as a 5-point loss for Jack O’Connor’s men.
They were not convincing next time out either against Cork but did enough to record a 2-point win and get their campaign back on track. Their final group game saw them find their 2022 form as they obliterated Louth to the tune of 5-24 to 0-11. That win, along with a Mayo implosion against Cork, saw the Kingdom top the group and advance to the Quarter-Finals.
There they would face old rivals Tyrone. After a competitive first half Kerry demonstrated their offensive firepower in the second period to record what would be a comfortable 11-point victory in the end. They would come up against another Ulster outfit in the semis, this time Derry who were one of the form teams in the country. In what was an instant classic, Kerry would prove victorious on a scoreline of 1-17 to 0-15.
Dublin were the opposition in the All-Ireland Final. The Kingdom, who had relied heavily on the exploits of superstar David Clifford during the campaign, struggled to get the Fossa man going. In the end, their reliance on Clifford would prove to be their undoing as they fell to a 2-point loss and would have to be content with a runner-up finish.
Kerry’s 2024 Results & Fixtures
National League Division 1
Kerry 2-08 0-15 Derry | Austin Stack Park, Kerry
Monaghan 1-12 3-15 Kerry | St Tiernach’s Park, Monaghan
Kerry 0-16 0-15 Mayo | Austin Stack Park, Kerry
Dublin 3-18 1-14 Kerry | Croke Park, Dublin
Kerry 0-18 1-11 Tyrone | Fitzgerald Stadium, Kerry
Roscommon 1-11 1-17 Kerry | Dr Hyde Park, Roscommon
Kerry 0-15 1-10 Galway | Fitzgerald Stadium, Kerry
Munster Championship
Kerry 0-18 1-12 Cork | Semi-Final | Fitzgerald Stadium, Kerry
Clare 1-13 0-23 Kerry | Final | Cusack Park, Clare
All-Ireland SFC Group 4
Kerry 0-24 1-11Monaghan | Fitzgerald Stadium, Kerry
Meath v Kerry | Páirc Tailteann, Meath
Kerry v *Louth | Neutral Venue
Analysis
If we’re to be critical of Kerry’s Championship campaign last year (and I will be), they didn’t impress on their route to the All-Ireland Final apart from their performance in the second half of their Quarter-Final against Tyrone.
You could argue that it’s a sign of a good team to not play your best and still reach the All-Ireland Final. While that’s fair, I would be concerned about Kerry’s Championship (and league) performances last year.
Despite those question marks, The Kingdom are undoubtedly a top-3 team in Ireland and the David Clifford factor is going to make them hard to beat come the business end of the Championship.
The have secured another facile Munster Championship but we won’t have much of an indication as to exactly where this Kerry team are at until we see them in action in the All-Ireland group stages.
Betting Tip
Here are the betting options available with Kerry;
To win the All-Ireland SFC – 5/2
To qualify for the Final – 10/11
To qualify for the Semi-Final – 1/4
David Clifford to win FOTY – 4/1
Out of the betting options we have available to us with Kerry my preferred bet by a distance is David Clifford to win Footballer of the Year. He is the best player in the land by a comfortable distance and, in the opinion of many (including me), the best player we’ve ever seen.
With the new All-Ireland group stage format, which sees the top teams play more games, it places less of a weight on the Footballer of the Year coming from the All-Ireland Champions. I don’t think this has been priced into the market yet and as a result, I see value in Clifford at 4/1 to win Footballer of the Year.
In the outright betting, I think Kerry have been overtaken by Derry as the 2nd best team in the country. Their all-around squad talent doesn’t compare to that of Dublin or Derry.
Market Drifter
Derry
The fifth favourites for this season’s All-Ireland Football Championship are Derry at 12/1 in the betting having drifted from 6/1. Those odds imply that Derry have a 7.7% chance of being crowned All-Ireland Champions.
Derry’s 2023 Championship Campaign
Derry proved that they were serious All-Ireland contenders last season with a second consecutive Ulster title along with reaching a second consecutive All-Ireland semi-final.
The Oak Leaf County were convincing in their Ulster campaign in reaching the final. They made light work of Fermanagh by recording a 12-point win. They then recorded a comfortable 8-point victory over Monaghan in the semi-final to book their spot in another Ulster Championship decider. That decider would go down to the wire against Armagh but Derry would hold their nerve to win out on penalties after the sides couldn’t be separated in 90 minutes of football.
Their first group stage game in the All-Ireland series was a rematch against Monaghan. This time out the Farney County provided a much tougher test and probably should have won the game but Derry held on to earn a draw. The Oak Leaf County had progressive form from then on out as they were comfortable in their 5-point win over Donegal and likewise in a 6-point victory against Clare which saw them claim top spot and advance to the quarter-final.
Cork would be their opposition in the Quarter-Final. The Rebels were competitive but Derry always looked like they were in control. They would advance to the semi-final with a 4-point win.
In that Semi-Final they would face Kerry, the 2022 All-Ireland Champions. The game was an exhilarating affair but Derry were unable to do what was required down the stretch to secure a victory. Despite the loss, the Oak Leaf County will feel that they have the beating of this Kerry team if they are to match up towards the business end of this year’s Championship.
Derry’s 2024 Results & Fixtures
National League Division 1
Kerry 2-08 0-15 Derry | Austin Stack Park, Kerry
Derry 1-12 0-09 Tyrone | Celtic Park, Derry
Derry 3-17 0-13 Monaghan | Celtic Park, Derry
Galway 1-11 3-10 Derry | Pearse Stadium, Galway
Derry 1-11 1-16 Dublin | Celtic Park, Derry
Mayo 2-13 3-15 Derry | MacHale Park, Mayo
Derry 2-19 1-09 Roscommon | Celtic Park, Derry
Ulster Championship
Derry 0-17 4-11 Donegal | Celtic Park, Derry
All-Ireland SFC Group 1
Galway 2-14 0-15 Derry| Pearse Stadium, Salthill
Derry v Armagh | Celtic Park, Derry
Derry v *Westmeath| Neutral Venue
Analysis
The fly goalkeeper tactic that Derry have employed with great success in recent years has a risk-reward nature to it. In their Ulster Championship outing against Division 2 Champions Donegal we saw the risk of the tactic exposed. Donegal went after Derry on the kick-out as they went long and direct. This ultimately proved to be Derry’s demise as they conceded 4 goals in a 6-point loss.
I expect them to take the learnings from that game and come back stronger. Although they would have wanted to secure a 3rd consecutive Ulster title, they may end up better served for the All-Ireland series with a break to work and refine some aspects of their play.
Betting Tip
Betting options available with Derry;
To win the All-Ireland SFC – 12/1
To Qualify for the Final – 9/2
To Qualify for the Semi-Final – 7/4
Derry despite on paper having all the ingredients required to become All-Ireland Champions. Star forward? Check. Star midfielder? Check (two of them in fact). Star man-marker? Check. Ferocious defence? Check. Ability to tear teams apart on the counter-attack? Check.
They latest defeat against Galway suggests things aren't as positive as many first expected with their early season form.
However, with them drifting from 6/1 to 12/1 if you’re looking for value in the 2024 All-Ireland odds then look no further than Derry. They are still arguably the best bet in terms of value to win the 2024 All-Ireland Football Championship.
Tip: Derry to win the All-Ireland at 12/1.
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
Remember, Always Gamble Responsibly.
