2024/25 Premier League Top Scorer Tips & Betting Favourites

In this post, we bring you 2024/25 Premier League top scorer tips plus take a look at the odds and betting favourites for this year's award.

The 23/24 Golden Boot was won by Man City’s Erling Haaland whose 27-goal haul was enough for a second successive victory in the competition with his closest challengers being Cole Palmer, who scored 22 for Chelsea, and Alexander Isak, who scored 21 for Newcastle.

Premier League 2024 Top Goalscorer Odds

Premier League Top Scorer

Erling Haaland – 8/13

The Man City striker (24) has taken English Football by storm since signing for the club in the summer of 2022 winning two successive Golden Boot prizes scoring 36 goals in the 22/23 season and 27 goals in the 23/24 season. It’s no surprise that odds of 8/13 suggest a 61.9% chance he wins it for the third time.

Erling Haaland is an elite finisher with a Non-Penalty XG of 0.76 Per 90 which is in the 99th percentile and with the likes of De Bruyne and Foden supplying him it’s no shock that his Shot Total of 4.10 Per 90 in the 95th percentile for all forwards. A sure-fire recipe for goals.

The major question mark around Haaland is not his goal-scoring ability, but question marks about his injury and fitness record. Despite having a questionable record before his move to England, Haaland has played 35 and 31 games in his first Premier League seasons and looks to have put those concerns behind him as he’s matured into his body as a footballer.

He opened his Premier League account for the 24/25 season at the first time of asking, scoring one in their 0-2 opening weekend victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Despite being a likely winner at odds of 8/13 I’d prefer a more value bet.

Verdict? Avoid

Mohamed Salah – 9/1

The man affectionately known as “The Egyptian King” by Liverpool fans might be approaching the “Twilight” of his career at (32) but he remains one of the Premier League’s most consistent performers and odds of 9/1 suggest a 10% chance he wins his fourth Premier League Golden Boot.

Salah is a constant menace for opposition defenders with a Non-Penalty XG of 0.56, 8.91 Attacking Penalty Touches and 3.88 Shots Total in the 99th, 99th and 98th percentile for all attacking midfielders at wingers. However, despite those numbers, there is a noticeable decline in his output with his tally of 18 in 23/24 his joint worst in the league for Liverpool and in the previous season, he only scored one more with 19. To win the Golden Boot this time around and rival Haaland a far bigger tally will be required to come close.

However, despite his poor Premier League tallies in his last two seasons (by Salah’s standards) he opened his account with a goal on the opening weekend against Ipswich and can’t be discounted from the betting market. But at 9/1 I wouldn’t fancy backing him at that price.

Verdict? Avoid.

Alexander Isak – 16/1

Next in the Premier League Top Scorer betting is Newcastle striker Alexander Isak whose odds of 16/1 suggest a 5.9% he tops the charts this season.

The Swede (24) first signed for Newcastle from Spanish side Real Sociedad in 2022, and he would go on to score 10 goals in 22 games for his debut season in the league. He would improve on that tally last season becoming their main attacking threat in the league scoring 21 times from 30 games; it was only ousted by Cole Palmer's 22 goals and Erling Haaland’s tally of 27 goals.

Isak isn’t the out-and-out striker that Haaland is and nor is he the dynamic winger that Salah is but more so a blend of both players. Isak is very versatile and can be found both out wide but also deeper or as part of a two-striker formation. His standout stats are his 0.56 Non-Penalty XG, 2.54 Progressive Carries and 2.78 Progressive Passes which are all in the 90th 85th and 81st percentile for all strikers.

While his ability can’t be questioned, his unselfish nature notched him an assist at the weekend and 0 shots. He is unlikely to get the same chances as a Haaland or a Salah as a result and so I wouldn’t be backing him either.

Verdict? Avoid

Other Premier League Top Scorer Contenders

Ollie Watkins had a brilliant season last year with Aston Villa including 19 league goals and is currently priced at 20/1 to top the goalscoring charts.

Cole had a brilliant first season with Chelsea scoring 22 times he is also priced at 20/1 to go oust Haaland for the big prize come the end of the season.

Another 20/1 shot is Dominic Solanke who scored 19 goals for Bournemouth last season his £55 million to Tottenham will have him more in the spotlight this time around.

Premier League Top Scorer Best Bet

Bryan Mbeumo – 80/1

My wildcard shout to have an each-way chance at the Premier League Top Scorer prize is Brentford attacker Bryan Mbeumo with odds of 80/1 suggesting just a 1.2% chance of him being top-scorer.

The Cameroon International (25) is a versatile attacker who can be found usually on the right wing but can deputise down the middle as either a second striker or as the main man. Despite signing for Brentford in 2019 and showing an abundance of ability with his 16-goal tally in the Championship his first season he has yet to get double digits in a season for the club again with a tally of 8 in all competitions in 20/21, 8 in 21/22 and 9 in 22/23.

Interestingly last season though he equalled his Premier League best tally of 9 from the previous season despite playing in 13 fewer games after missing out on 19 games in total for club and country due to an ankle injury. Had he been fit for the full season he would have almost surely entered double digits comfortably.

The opening weekend of the season saw a shock in the team news with Ivan Toney who is linked with a move away from the club left out of their squad against Crystal Palace. However, he got on the scoresheet in a brilliant performance in a 2-1 win.

His importance to the club could heighten if/when Toney eventually leaves and if he stays fit he could have an outside chance of being “best of the rest” minus maybe Haaland and have a season similar to Cole Palmer last year.

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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